OPERATIONS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119448037
Author: Russell
Publisher: WILEY
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Textbook Question
Chapter 12, Problem 6P
The manager of the Excom Service Station wants to
- a. Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast using an α value of .30.
- b. Compute an adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast (α = .30 and β = .20).
- c. Compare the two forecasts using MAPD and indicate which seems to be the most accurate.
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Students have asked these similar questions
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
12
15
11
18
13
Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.
(a)
Mean absolute error
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
(b)
Mean squared error
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
(c)
Mean absolute percentage error
If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to two decimal places.
(d)
What is the forecast for week 7?
Complete the forecasting worksheets for:
Naïve
Average
Moving Average
Weighted Moving Average using the weights of .8, .15, and .05 with .8 being the most current, then .15, then .05
ExponA using and alpha level of .75
ExponB will automatically be .25 when A is .75
Exponential Solver
What is the best alpha level as determined by the Exponential Solver?
Which is the best forecasting option for MAE? What is the MAE?
Which is the best forecasting option for MAPE? What is the MAPE?
Period
Sales
1
115
2
118
3
128
4
122
5
135
6
128
7
135
8
132
9
132
10
135
The past two years sales at ACSR Inc. were 3 million and 5 million. Their forecast
team used a two-period moving average to forecast its sales this year. But the actual
sales for this year were 5 million. Now, the forecast team wants to forecast its sales for
next year by using exponential smoothing with alpha equals 0.6.
What is the forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .6?
2. If we decide to use an alpha of .2 instead of .6, will we be ‘weighting the error from the previous period higher or the Forecast from the previous
period higher? Explain briefly or show using math!
(In this question I am asking if we change the alpha to a lower alpha, what will be the effect – what will we be ‘weighing’ as more important?)
Chapter 12 Solutions
OPERATIONS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
Ch. 12 - List some of the operations and functions in a...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between quantitative...Ch. 12 - Describe the difference between short- and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 4QCh. 12 - Why is accurate forecasting so important to...Ch. 12 - Discuss the relationship between forecasting and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 7QCh. 12 - Describe the Delphi method for forecasting.Ch. 12 - What is the difference between a trend and a cycle...Ch. 12 - How is the moving average method similar to...
Ch. 12 - In the chapter examples for time series methods,...Ch. 12 - What effect on the exponential smoothing model...Ch. 12 - How does adjusted exponential smoothing differ...Ch. 12 - What determines the choice of the smoothing...Ch. 12 - How does the linear trend line forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Of the time series models presented in this...Ch. 12 - What advantages does adjusted exponential...Ch. 12 - Describe how a forecast is monitored to detect...Ch. 12 - Explain the relationship between the use of a...Ch. 12 - Selecting from MAD, MAPD, MSE, E, and E, which...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between linear and multiple...Ch. 12 - Define the different components (y, x, a, and b)...Ch. 12 - A company that produces video equipment, including...Ch. 12 - The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the...Ch. 12 - The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be...Ch. 12 - The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes...Ch. 12 - Graph the demand data in Problem 12.3. Can you...Ch. 12 - The chairperson of the department of management at...Ch. 12 - The manager of the Excom Service Station wants to...Ch. 12 - The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had...Ch. 12 - The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum,...Ch. 12 - Mary Hernandez has invested in a stock mutual fund...Ch. 12 - Globetron manufactures components for use in small...Ch. 12 - The Bee Line Caf is well known for its popular...Ch. 12 - For the demand data in Problem 12.11, develop a...Ch. 12 - Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the...Ch. 12 - Backstreets Pizza delivery service has randomly...Ch. 12 - The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships...Ch. 12 - The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog...Ch. 12 - Townside Food Vending operates vending machines in...Ch. 12 - The town aquatic center has an indoor pool that...Ch. 12 - Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast...Ch. 12 - During the past five months the emergency room at...Ch. 12 - At its craft store and through its website, the...Ch. 12 - A group of business students at Tech organized a...Ch. 12 - Temco Industries has developed a forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Monitor the forecast in Problem 12.23 for bias...Ch. 12 - Develop a statistical control chart for the...Ch. 12 - Monitor the adjusted exponential smoothing...Ch. 12 - Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with =...
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