OPERATIONS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119448037
Author: Russell
Publisher: WILEY
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Textbook Question
Chapter 12, Problem 3P
The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes fertilizer to various lawn and garden shops. The company must base its quarterly production
- a. Compute a three-quarter moving average forecast for quarters 4 through 13 and compute the forecast error for each quarter.
- b. Compute a five-quarter moving average forecast for quarters 6 through 13 and compute the forecast error for each quarter.
- c. Compute a weighted three-quarter moving average forecast using weights of .50, .33, and .17 for the most recent, next recent, and most distant data, respectively, and compute the forecast error for each quarter.
- d. Compare the forecasts developed in parts (a), (b), and (c) using cumulative error. Which forecast appears to be most accurate? Do any exhibit any bias?
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Students have asked these similar questions
) Consider the following time series data:
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 18 13 16 11 17 14
i)Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exist in the data?
ii)Develop a three – week moving average for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast cast for week 7.
Use alpha = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing value for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
IV)Compare the three -week moving average forecast with exponential smoothing forecast using alpha = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain
V)Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing. Coefficient Alpha that result in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for alpha = 0.2.
Consider the following time series data:
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 18 13 16 11 17 14
2) Refer to the time series data in Exercise 1. Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next period. Compute the following measures of forecast accuracy
i)Mean absolute error
ii)Mean squared error
iii)Mean absolute percentage error
iv)What is the forecast for week 7?
The following are the sales figures for 2018 through 2020 for a product. Data for ayear is available in two halves of the year, months January through June, and thenJuly through December (Half-year 2).
Suppose we are interested in setting up a forecasting model using the exponentialsmoothing method for stationary processes with seasonality.a) Initialize the system based on the data provided for 2018 and 2019.b) Suppose the smoothing factors are ?= 0.1 and ?= 0.1. Forecast and update forthe first half of 2020 and then the second half of 2020 by incorporating the sales forthe first half of 2020 . Calculate the MAD based on 2020actuals and forecasts.c) Forecast sales for the two halves of 2021.
Chapter 12 Solutions
OPERATIONS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
Ch. 12 - List some of the operations and functions in a...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between quantitative...Ch. 12 - Describe the difference between short- and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 4QCh. 12 - Why is accurate forecasting so important to...Ch. 12 - Discuss the relationship between forecasting and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 7QCh. 12 - Describe the Delphi method for forecasting.Ch. 12 - What is the difference between a trend and a cycle...Ch. 12 - How is the moving average method similar to...
Ch. 12 - In the chapter examples for time series methods,...Ch. 12 - What effect on the exponential smoothing model...Ch. 12 - How does adjusted exponential smoothing differ...Ch. 12 - What determines the choice of the smoothing...Ch. 12 - How does the linear trend line forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Of the time series models presented in this...Ch. 12 - What advantages does adjusted exponential...Ch. 12 - Describe how a forecast is monitored to detect...Ch. 12 - Explain the relationship between the use of a...Ch. 12 - Selecting from MAD, MAPD, MSE, E, and E, which...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between linear and multiple...Ch. 12 - Define the different components (y, x, a, and b)...Ch. 12 - A company that produces video equipment, including...Ch. 12 - The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the...Ch. 12 - The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be...Ch. 12 - The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes...Ch. 12 - Graph the demand data in Problem 12.3. Can you...Ch. 12 - The chairperson of the department of management at...Ch. 12 - The manager of the Excom Service Station wants to...Ch. 12 - The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had...Ch. 12 - The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum,...Ch. 12 - Mary Hernandez has invested in a stock mutual fund...Ch. 12 - Globetron manufactures components for use in small...Ch. 12 - The Bee Line Caf is well known for its popular...Ch. 12 - For the demand data in Problem 12.11, develop a...Ch. 12 - Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the...Ch. 12 - Backstreets Pizza delivery service has randomly...Ch. 12 - The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships...Ch. 12 - The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog...Ch. 12 - Townside Food Vending operates vending machines in...Ch. 12 - The town aquatic center has an indoor pool that...Ch. 12 - Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast...Ch. 12 - During the past five months the emergency room at...Ch. 12 - At its craft store and through its website, the...Ch. 12 - A group of business students at Tech organized a...Ch. 12 - Temco Industries has developed a forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Monitor the forecast in Problem 12.23 for bias...Ch. 12 - Develop a statistical control chart for the...Ch. 12 - Monitor the adjusted exponential smoothing...Ch. 12 - Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with =...
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