MyLab Statistics for Business Stats with Pearson eText -- Standalone Access Card -- for Statistics for Business and Economics
13th Edition
ISBN: 9780134748610
Author: James T. McClave, P. George Benson, Terry Sincich
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 14.5, Problem 14.25ACB
Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to Exercise 14.7 (p. 14-10) and the data on U.S. beer production (in millions of barrels) for the years 2004-2015.
a. Use the 2004-2013 values to forecast the 2014 and 2015 production, using simple exponential smoothing with w = .3. Repeat with w = .7.
b. Use Holt’s model with w = .7 and v = .3 to forecast production in 2014 and 2015. Repeat with w = .3 and v = .7.
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Students have asked these similar questions
With the gasoline time series data from the given table, show the exponential smoothing forecasts using = 0.1.
Week
Sales (1000s of gallons)
1
17
2
21
3
19
4
23
5
18
6
16
7
20
8
18
9
22
10
20
11
15
12
22
Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of = 0.1 or = 0.2 for the gasoline sales time series? Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to two decimal places.
= 0.1
= 0.2
MSE
fill in the blank 1
fill in the blank 2
Prefer: 01. or 0.2
2. Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy? Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to two decimal places.
= 0.1
= 0.2
MAE
fill in the blank 4
fill in the blank 5
Prefer: 0.1 or 0.2
3. What are the results if MAPE is used? Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to two decimal places.
= 0.1
= 0.2
MAPE
fill in…
The values of Alabama building contracts (in $ millions) for a 12 -month period follow.
240
350
240
260
280
320
220
310
240
310
240
240
A. Compare the three-month moving average approach with the exponential smoothing forecast using a=0.2 (to 2 decimals).
MSE (3-Month) _______
MSE ( a=0.2) __________
Using only the errors for months 4 to 12, the MSE for exponential smoothing is:
MSE ( a=0.2) __________
C. Using the approach that provides more accurate forecasts based on MSE, what is the forecast for the next month (to the nearest whole number)?
$ _______million
Storrs Cycles has just started selling the new Cyclonemountain bike, with monthly sales as shown in the table. First,co-owner Bob Day wants to forecast by exponential smoothingby initially setting February’s forecast equal to January’s saleswith a = .1. Co-owner Sherry Snyder wants to use a three-periodmoving average.
a) Is there a strong linear trend in sales over time?b) Fill in the table with what Bob and Sherry each forecast forMay and the earlier months, as relevant.c) Assume that May’s actual sales figure turns out to be 405.Complete the table’s columns and then calculate the meanabsolute deviation for both Bob’s and Sherry’s methods.d) Based on these calculations, which method seems moreaccurate?
Chapter 14 Solutions
MyLab Statistics for Business Stats with Pearson eText -- Standalone Access Card -- for Statistics for Business and Economics
Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words how to construct a simple index.Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words how to calculate the following...Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words the difference between Laspeyres...Ch. 14.1 - The table below gives the prices for three...Ch. 14.1 - Refer to Exercise 14.4. The next table gives the...Ch. 14.1 - Annual median family income. The table below lists...Ch. 14.1 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. While overall...Ch. 14.1 - Quarterly single-family housing starts. The...Ch. 14.1 - Spot price of natural gas. The table shown in the...Ch. 14.1 - Employment in farm and nonfarm categories....
Ch. 14.1 - GOP personal consumption expenditures. The gross...Ch. 14.1 - GDP personal consumption expenditures (contd)....Ch. 14.1 - Weekly earnings for workers. The table in the next...Ch. 14.1 - Production and price of metals. The level or price...Ch. 14.2 - Describe the effect of selecting an exponential...Ch. 14.2 - A monthly time series is shown in the table to the...Ch. 14.2 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to the...Ch. 14.2 - Foreign fish production. Overfishing and pollution...Ch. 14.2 - Yearly price of gold. The price of gold is used by...Ch. 14.2 - Personal consumption in transportation. There has...Ch. 14.2 - OPEC crude oil imports. The data in the table...Ch. 14.2 - SP 500 Stock Index. Standard Poors 500 Composite...Ch. 14.5 - How does the choice of the smoothing constant w...Ch. 14.5 - Refer to Exercise 14.4 (p. 14-9). The table with...Ch. 14.5 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to...Ch. 14.5 - Quarterly single-family housing starts. Refer to...Ch. 14.5 - Consumer Price Index. The CPI measures the...Ch. 14.5 - OPEC crude oil imports. Refer to the annual OPEC...Ch. 14.5 - SP 500 Stock Index. Refer to the quarterly...Ch. 14.5 - SP 500 Stock Index (contd). Refer to Exercise...Ch. 14.5 - Monthly gold prices. The fluctuation of gold...Ch. 14.6 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to the...Ch. 14.6 - Annual U.S. craft beer production (contd). Refer...Ch. 14.6 - SP 500 Stock Index. Refer to your exponential...Ch. 14.6 - SP 500 Stock Index (contd). Refer to your Holt...Ch. 14.6 - Monthly gold prices. Refer to the monthly gold...Ch. 14.6 - US school enrollments. The next table reports...Ch. 14.8 - The annual price of a finished product (in cents...Ch. 14.8 - Retail sales in Quarters 14 over a 10-year period...Ch. 14.8 - What advantage do regression forecasts have over...Ch. 14.8 - Mortgage interest rates. The level at which...Ch. 14.8 - Price of natural gas. Refer to Exercise 14.9 (p....Ch. 14.8 - A gasoline tax on carbon emissions. In an effort...Ch. 14.8 - Predicting presidential elections. Researchers at...Ch. 14.8 - Life insurance policies in force. The table below...Ch. 14.8 - Graphing calculator sales. The next table presents...Ch. 14.8 - Prob. 14.47ACICh. 14.9 - Define autocorrelation. Explain why it is...Ch. 14.9 - For each case, indicate the decision regarding the...Ch. 14.9 - What do the following Durbin-Watson statistics...Ch. 14.9 - Company donations to charity. Refer to the Journal...Ch. 14.9 - Forecasting monthly car and truck sales. Forecasts...Ch. 14.9 - Predicting presidential elections. Refer to the...Ch. 14.9 - Mortgage interest rates. Refer to the data on...Ch. 14.9 - Price of natural gas. Refer to the annual data on...Ch. 14.9 - Life insurance policies in force. Refer to the...Ch. 14.9 - Modeling the deposit share of a retail bank....Ch. 14 - Insured Social Security workers. Workers insured...Ch. 14 - Insured Social Security workers (contd). Refer to...Ch. 14 - Retail prices of food items. In 1990, the average...Ch. 14 - Demand for emergency room services. With the...Ch. 14 - Mortgage interest rates. Refer to the annual...Ch. 14 - Price of Abbott Labs stock. The yearly closing...Ch. 14 - Price o f Abbott Labs stock (contd). Refer to...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.65ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.66ACICh. 14 - Quarterly GOP values (contd). Refer to Exercise...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.68ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.69ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.70ACICh. 14 - IBM stock prices. Refer to Example 14.1 (p. 14-5)...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.72ACI
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