MyLab Statistics for Business Stats with Pearson eText -- Standalone Access Card -- for Statistics for Business and Economics
13th Edition
ISBN: 9780134748610
Author: James T. McClave, P. George Benson, Terry Sincich
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 14.5, Problem 14.28ACB
OPEC crude oil imports. Refer to the annual OPEC oil import data. Exercise 14.21 (p. 14-15).
a. Use the exponentially smoothed (w = .9) series you constructed in Exercise 14.21 a to forecast OPEC oil imports in 2015.
b. Forecast OPEC oil imports in 2015 using the Holt’s forecasting model with smoothing constants w = .3 and v = .8. 1,202.6
c. Calculate the errors of the forecasts, parts a and b. Which method yields the smallest forecast error? Holt’s
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a) With MAD as the criterion, the best forecasting model for this time series data is: A. Naïve approach B. 2-week SMA C. WMA with weights: 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 D. ES with alpha = 0.8
b) The demand forecast for Month 6 would be: A. 565 haircuts B. 574 haircuts C. 578 haircuts D. 584 haircuts
Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series. The multiplicative model is appropriate and a four-quarter moving average will be used.
Year
Quarter
Time Series Value Yt
1
1
36
2
24
3
16
2
4
20
1
44
An estimate of the combined trend-cycle component (T2Ct) for Quarter 3 of Year 1 (used for estimating the de-trended values), when a four-quarter moving average is used, is
a. 24.
b. 26.
c. 28.
d. 25.
With the gasoline time series data from the given table, show the exponential smoothing forecasts using = 0.1.
Week
Sales (1000s of gallons)
1
17
2
21
3
19
4
23
5
18
6
16
7
20
8
18
9
22
10
20
11
15
12
22
Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of = 0.1 or = 0.2 for the gasoline sales time series? Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to two decimal places.
= 0.1
= 0.2
MSE
fill in the blank 1
fill in the blank 2
Prefer: 01. or 0.2
2. Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy? Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to two decimal places.
= 0.1
= 0.2
MAE
fill in the blank 4
fill in the blank 5
Prefer: 0.1 or 0.2
3. What are the results if MAPE is used? Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to two decimal places.
= 0.1
= 0.2
MAPE
fill in…
Chapter 14 Solutions
MyLab Statistics for Business Stats with Pearson eText -- Standalone Access Card -- for Statistics for Business and Economics
Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words how to construct a simple index.Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words how to calculate the following...Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words the difference between Laspeyres...Ch. 14.1 - The table below gives the prices for three...Ch. 14.1 - Refer to Exercise 14.4. The next table gives the...Ch. 14.1 - Annual median family income. The table below lists...Ch. 14.1 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. While overall...Ch. 14.1 - Quarterly single-family housing starts. The...Ch. 14.1 - Spot price of natural gas. The table shown in the...Ch. 14.1 - Employment in farm and nonfarm categories....
Ch. 14.1 - GOP personal consumption expenditures. The gross...Ch. 14.1 - GDP personal consumption expenditures (contd)....Ch. 14.1 - Weekly earnings for workers. The table in the next...Ch. 14.1 - Production and price of metals. The level or price...Ch. 14.2 - Describe the effect of selecting an exponential...Ch. 14.2 - A monthly time series is shown in the table to the...Ch. 14.2 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to the...Ch. 14.2 - Foreign fish production. Overfishing and pollution...Ch. 14.2 - Yearly price of gold. The price of gold is used by...Ch. 14.2 - Personal consumption in transportation. There has...Ch. 14.2 - OPEC crude oil imports. The data in the table...Ch. 14.2 - SP 500 Stock Index. Standard Poors 500 Composite...Ch. 14.5 - How does the choice of the smoothing constant w...Ch. 14.5 - Refer to Exercise 14.4 (p. 14-9). The table with...Ch. 14.5 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to...Ch. 14.5 - Quarterly single-family housing starts. Refer to...Ch. 14.5 - Consumer Price Index. The CPI measures the...Ch. 14.5 - OPEC crude oil imports. Refer to the annual OPEC...Ch. 14.5 - SP 500 Stock Index. Refer to the quarterly...Ch. 14.5 - SP 500 Stock Index (contd). Refer to Exercise...Ch. 14.5 - Monthly gold prices. The fluctuation of gold...Ch. 14.6 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to the...Ch. 14.6 - Annual U.S. craft beer production (contd). Refer...Ch. 14.6 - SP 500 Stock Index. Refer to your exponential...Ch. 14.6 - SP 500 Stock Index (contd). Refer to your Holt...Ch. 14.6 - Monthly gold prices. Refer to the monthly gold...Ch. 14.6 - US school enrollments. The next table reports...Ch. 14.8 - The annual price of a finished product (in cents...Ch. 14.8 - Retail sales in Quarters 14 over a 10-year period...Ch. 14.8 - What advantage do regression forecasts have over...Ch. 14.8 - Mortgage interest rates. The level at which...Ch. 14.8 - Price of natural gas. Refer to Exercise 14.9 (p....Ch. 14.8 - A gasoline tax on carbon emissions. In an effort...Ch. 14.8 - Predicting presidential elections. Researchers at...Ch. 14.8 - Life insurance policies in force. The table below...Ch. 14.8 - Graphing calculator sales. The next table presents...Ch. 14.8 - Prob. 14.47ACICh. 14.9 - Define autocorrelation. Explain why it is...Ch. 14.9 - For each case, indicate the decision regarding the...Ch. 14.9 - What do the following Durbin-Watson statistics...Ch. 14.9 - Company donations to charity. Refer to the Journal...Ch. 14.9 - Forecasting monthly car and truck sales. Forecasts...Ch. 14.9 - Predicting presidential elections. Refer to the...Ch. 14.9 - Mortgage interest rates. Refer to the data on...Ch. 14.9 - Price of natural gas. Refer to the annual data on...Ch. 14.9 - Life insurance policies in force. Refer to the...Ch. 14.9 - Modeling the deposit share of a retail bank....Ch. 14 - Insured Social Security workers. Workers insured...Ch. 14 - Insured Social Security workers (contd). Refer to...Ch. 14 - Retail prices of food items. In 1990, the average...Ch. 14 - Demand for emergency room services. With the...Ch. 14 - Mortgage interest rates. Refer to the annual...Ch. 14 - Price of Abbott Labs stock. The yearly closing...Ch. 14 - Price o f Abbott Labs stock (contd). Refer to...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.65ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.66ACICh. 14 - Quarterly GOP values (contd). Refer to Exercise...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.68ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.69ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.70ACICh. 14 - IBM stock prices. Refer to Example 14.1 (p. 14-5)...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.72ACI
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