Essentials Of Business Analytics
1st Edition
ISBN: 9781285187273
Author: Camm, Jeff.
Publisher: Cengage Learning,
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Textbook Question
Chapter 5, Problem 13P
The values of Alabama building contracts (in millions of dollars) for a 12-month period are as follows:
- a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
- b. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast. Use α = 0.2. Which provides the better forecasts based on MSE?
- c. What is the forecast for the next month using exponential smoothing with α = 0.2?
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Students have asked these similar questions
Which of the following time series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast seasonal data?
After its move in 1990 to La Junta, Colorado, and its new initiatives, the DeBourgh Manufacturing Company began an upward climb of record sales. Suppose the figures shown here are the DeBourgh monthly sales figures from January 2001 through December 2009 (in $1,000s).
a) Produce a time series plot. Are there any trends evident in the data? Does DeBourgh have a seasonal component to its sales?
b) Deseasonalize the data using Multiplicative model with a 0.5 weighted moving average. Produce a time series plot of the deseasonalized data and add a trendline.
c) Forecast the sales from January to December of the year 2010.
d) Include a discussion of the general direction of sales and any seasonal tendencies that might be occurrinG
Month
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
January
139.7
165.1
177.8
228.6
266.7
431.8
381
431.8
495.3
February
114.3
177.8
203.2
254
317.5
457.2
406.4
444.5
533.4
March
101.6
177.8
228.6
266.7
368.3
457.2
431.8
495.3
635
April
152.4
203.2…
For the hawkins company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on timeover the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83.a. construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?b. compare the three-month moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach for a = .2. Which provides more accurate forecasts using MSe as themeasure of forecast accuracy?
Chapter 5 Solutions
Essentials Of Business Analytics
Ch. 5 - Consider the following time series data:
Using...Ch. 5 - Refer to the time series data in Problem 1. Using...Ch. 5 - Problems 1 and 2 used different forecasting...Ch. 5 - Consider the following time series data:
Compute...Ch. 5 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 5 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 5 - Prob. 8PCh. 5 - Prob. 9PCh. 5 - Prob. 10PCh. 5 - For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages...
Ch. 5 - Corporate triple A bond interest rates for 12...Ch. 5 - The values of Alabama building contracts (in...Ch. 5 - The following time series shows the sales of a...Ch. 5 - Prob. 15PCh. 5 - The following table reports the percentage of...Ch. 5 - Consider the following time series: a. Construct a...Ch. 5 - Consider the following time series:
Construct a...Ch. 5 - The Seneca Children’s Fund (SCF) is a local...Ch. 5 - The president of a small manufacturing firm is...Ch. 5 - Consider the following time series: a. Construct a...Ch. 5 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 5 - The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold)...Ch. 5 - Prob. 25PCh. 5 - South Shore Construction builds permanent docks...Ch. 5 - Hogs & Dawgs is an ice cream parlor on the border...Ch. 5 - Donna Nickles manages a gasoline station on the...Ch. 5 - The Vintage Restaurant, on Captiva Island near...
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- Find out the next month after april income by using the forecasting method of the moving average methodarrow_forwardWhich of the time series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast seasonal data?arrow_forwardThe following ratio-to-moving averages for the seasonally adjusted series were found by the decomposition method applied on a time series representing quarterly sales for January 2018 to December 2020 period: a. Calculate the Seasonal Index for every quarter. b. If the trend is described by the trend line T^ = 1,000 + 30 t, what is the forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021?arrow_forward
- a. In the Petroco Service Station problem, compute an exponentially smoothed forecast with an α value of .30. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the month of August b.In the Petroco Service Station problem, for the exponentially smoothed forecast with an α value of .30, compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) via Excel and/or POM-QM c. In the Petroco Service Station problem, compute an exponentially smoothed forecast with an α value of .50. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the month of January would be d.In the Petroco Service Station problem, compute an exponentially smoothed forecast with an α value of .50. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the month of Augustarrow_forwardUsing excel. For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83. a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Compare the three-month moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach for α=\alpha =α= .2. Which provides more accurate forecasts using MSE as the measure of forecast accuracy? c. What is the forecast for next month?arrow_forwardLook at the four plots in Figure 14.2—the US unemployment rate, thedollar-pound exchange rate, the logarithm of the index of industrial production, and the percentage change in stock prices. Which of these seriesappears to be non-stationary? Which of them appears to resemble a randomwalk?arrow_forward
- Consider the following data:Monthly Profit of a Gym: Month & Profit: Jan-12: 5800 Feb-12: 5553 March-12: 5094 April-12: 4797 May-12: 5215 June-12: 5718 July-12: 6719 Aug-12: 6208 Sept-12: 5936 What are the MAD, MSE and MAPE scores for the three-period weighted moving average forecast? Round any intermediate calculations, if necessary, to no less than six decimal places, and round your final answer to one decimal place. MAD: MSE: MAPE as %: link to excel sheet for forumla to assist: http://www.livebinders.com/play/play?id=2368073arrow_forwardConsider the following data:Monthly Profit of an Auto Repair Shop Month Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Profit ($) 17,527 17,677 16,455 18,642 20,163 17,350 19,127 18,622 20,422 Step 3 of 4 : Determine the exponential smoothing forecast for the next time period using a smoothing constant of 0.35. If necessary, round your answer to one decimal place. I have been stuck on this for 2 days now. I do not understand exponential smoothing forecast at all and the textbook is not helpful. I have tried looking at the textbook, using the step-by-step learning tools, and youtube videos and it still isn't helping.arrow_forwardJohn Kittle, an independent insurance agent, uses a five-year moving average to forecast the number of claims made in a single year for one of the large insurance companies he sells for. He has just discovered that a clerk in his employ incorrectly entered the number of claims made four years ago as 1,400 when it should have been 1,200.a. What adjustment should Mr. Kittle make in next year’s forecast to take into account the corrected value of the number of claims four years ago?b. Suppose that Mr. Kittle used simple exponential smoothing with a = .2instead of moving averages to determine his forecast. What adjustment is now required in next year’s forecast? (Note that you do not need to know the value of the forecast for next year in order to solve this problem.)arrow_forward
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