Practical Operations Management
2nd Edition
ISBN: 9781939297136
Author: Simpson
Publisher: HERCHER PUBLISHING,INCORPORATED
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Chapter 7, Problem 25P
Summary Introduction
Interpretation:
The probability of the project will be completed within 3 weeks when only two path A-B-E of the probability of 55% and another path C-D-F of probability 90% being completed in 3 weeks.
Concept Introduction:
Probability is the field of mathematics concerning numerical description and which mainly deals with how likely an event is going to occur. The probability of a happening is a number between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates impossibility, and 1 indicates possibility.
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Students have asked these similar questions
Using your results from Problem 6,(a) Calculate the probability that the project will be completedin 38 weeks.(b) Calculate the probability that the project will be completedin 42 weeks
Consider the following PERT time estimates:
a. Draw a network for this project and determine the critical path based on the most likely times by inspection.b. Assuming that the critical path is the one you identified in part (a), what is the probability that the project will be completed before 28weeks? Before 32 weeks?c. Assuming that the critical path is the one you identified in part (a), how many weeks are required to complete the project with probability .95?
Contract requirements state that a project must be completed within 180 working days, or it will incur penalties for late completion. Analysis of the activity network reveals an estimated project time of 145 working days with a project variance of 400. What is the probability that the project will be completed before the late-payment deadline?
Chapter 7 Solutions
Practical Operations Management
Ch. 7 - Prob. 1DQCh. 7 - Prob. 2DQCh. 7 - Prob. 3DQCh. 7 - Prob. 4DQCh. 7 - Prob. 5DQCh. 7 - Prob. 6DQCh. 7 - Prob. 1PCh. 7 - Prob. 2PCh. 7 - Prob. 3PCh. 7 - Prob. 4P
Ch. 7 - Prob. 5PCh. 7 - Prob. 6PCh. 7 - Prob. 7PCh. 7 - Prob. 8PCh. 7 - Prob. 9PCh. 7 - Prob. 10PCh. 7 - Prob. 11PCh. 7 - Prob. 12PCh. 7 - Prob. 13PCh. 7 - Prob. 14PCh. 7 - Prob. 15PCh. 7 - Prob. 16PCh. 7 - Prob. 17PCh. 7 - Prob. 18PCh. 7 - Prob. 19PCh. 7 - Prob. 20PCh. 7 - Prob. 21PCh. 7 - Prob. 22PCh. 7 - Prob. 23PCh. 7 - Prob. 24PCh. 7 - Prob. 25PCh. 7 - Prob. 26PCh. 7 - Prob. 27PCh. 7 - Prob. 28PCh. 7 - Prob. 29PCh. 7 - Prob. 30PCh. 7 - Prob. 31PCh. 7 - Prob. 32PCh. 7 - Prob. 1.1QCh. 7 - Prob. 1.2QCh. 7 - Prob. 1.3QCh. 7 - Prob. 1.4QCh. 7 - Prob. 2.1QCh. 7 - Prob. 2.2QCh. 7 - Prob. 2.3Q
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- A completion time (X) is expected to be 52 weeks, with a variance of 64. What is the probability the project will be completed 16 weeks before its expected completion date? Assume X is normal.arrow_forwardActivity A takes 36 hours and can begin as soon as the project begins. Activity B takes 21 hours and should take place after the project has begun. Activity C must happen after Activity A and lasts 31 hours. Activity D must take place after activities B and C takes 26 hours. Activity E must take place after Activity C and lasts 6 hours. Activity F takes place after Activity E and lasts 18 hours. Activities F and D are the project's final activities. Draw the AON for the network diagram and specify the critical path and its duration.arrow_forwardConsider the following network for conducting a two-week (10 working days) computer training class: please refer to the picture I uploaded Find the crash cost per day. Which activities should be crashed to meet a project deadline of 10 days with a minimum cost? Assume partial crashing. Find the new cost. Is partial crashing an appropriate assumption in this kind of project?arrow_forward
- For each of the following network diagrams, determine both the critical path and the expected project duration. The numbers on the arrows represent expected activity times.a. AOA diagram b. AON diagram c. AOA diagram d. AON diagramarrow_forwarda) Identify all paths from nodes 1 to 6 b) Determine the probability that the project is completed within 20 weeks assuming that the critical path identified in part a is critical c)Recompute the answer to part b assuming independance of the paths identified in part aarrow_forwardThere are four critical paths in a network. A-B-C-D-E, A-F-G-E, A-H-J-K-L-E and A-S-T-E. Each activity in this network can be crashed by 100 hours. The maximum possible reduction in the project duration will be: a. Insufficient information b. 1300 hours c. 500 hours d. 400 hours e. 600 hourarrow_forward
- Why might a probabilistic estimate of a project’s completion time based solely on the variance of the critical path be misleading? Under what circumstances would it be acceptable?arrow_forwardThe following information has been computed from a project: Expected total project time = T = 62 weeks Project variance = 81 1- What is the probability that the project will be completed 18 weeks before its expected completion date? 2- Draw Normal Curve & Analysis your solution with conclusionarrow_forwardI also know answer is d, but please explain each and every option why other option are incorrect too. Which of the following statements regarding PERT analysis is true? Each activity has two estimates of its duration. Project variance is the sum of all activity variances. Project standard deviation is the sum of all critical activity standard deviations. Only critical activities contribute to the project variance. none of these is true.arrow_forward
- In the space provided below create the network diagram that shows the relationship (logic) of project activities shown below and then number each event. 1. In a given project activities "A, B and C are initial activities that may begin at the same time 2. -----"D" cannot begin until "A" is complete. 3. ----- "B" must be complete before E can begin. 4. ----- "F" cannot start until "C" is finished. 5. ----- "G" cannot begin until "B" is finished. 6. ----- "G" and "D" must be done before "H" can begin. 7. ----- "I" cannot begin until "B" is finished. 8. ----- "J" can begin only after "F" and "I" are complete. 9. ----- Once "E" is complete, "K" can begin. 10. ---- The project will be finished when "H" "J" and "K" are complete.arrow_forwardYour company has just received an order from a good customer for a specially designed electric motor. The contract states that, starting on the 13th day from now, your firm will experience a penalty of $100 per day until the job is completed. Indirect project costs amount to $200 per day. The data on direct costs and activity precedence relationships are given in Table. Electric Motor Project Data Activity Normal Time(days) Normal Cost ($) Crash Time (days) Crash Cost ($) ImmediatePredecessor(s) A B C D E F G H 4 7 5 6 3 11 4 3 1000 1400 2000 1200 900 2500 800 300 3 4 4 5 2 6 3 1 1300 1200 2700 1400 1100 3750 1450 500 None None None A B C D,E F,G a. Draw the project network diagram.b. What completion date would you recommend?arrow_forwardA project has 7 activities P, Q, R, S, T, U, and V. Three time estimates (optimistic, most-likely, pessimistic) are used for each activity. Write down your answers to all parts of the question in the box given below. Give your answer to 3 decimal places. (Note (a) has of 2 parts and (b) has of 3 parts) For activity Q, these time estimates are as follows: optimistic time = 9, most-likely time = 14, pessimistic time = 20. Write down the average activity time for Q the variance of activity time for Q. The critical path of this project has a mean project time of 44 days and a standard deviation of 5 days. Assume project completion time is normally distributed. Find the probability that the project will be completed in 47 days. Find the probability that the project will take more than 40 days. We want to set a deadline for this project completion. If the probability of meeting this set deadline is 0.88, what will be the deadline for this project.arrow_forward
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